Why the Chiefs are the Heavy Favorites
First off, this isn’t just another regular‑season game. It’s the inaugural match of the 2025 NFL calendar, and it happens half a world away from the usual NFL turf – São Paulo, Brazil. That neutral‑site factor adds a splash of novelty, but it doesn’t erase a decade of consistency from Kansas City. The Chiefs have hoarded nine straight AFC West crowns, and they’re one title shy of joining the New England Patriots as the only franchise to own a ten‑year division streak.
Patrick Mahomes is the centerpiece of that dominance. While most quarterbacks enjoy a good start to the season, Mahomes has turned September into his personal playground. Since his rookie season, he’s gone 19‑4 in the first month, an .826 winning percentage that only Cowboys legend Roger Staubach has eclipsed in the Super Bowl era. Those numbers translate into a habit of delivering clutch plays when the spotlight is brightest – think late‑game comebacks, deep‑ball accuracy, and an ability to read defenses on the fly.
The Chiefs’ defense also deserves a shout‑out. After a Super Bowl run that relied on a blend of veteran savvy and youthful explosiveness, the unit returns with barely any roster churn. Defensive line snappers, linebackers, and secondary backs are largely the same faces that helped Kansas City lift the Lombardi Trophy. That continuity breeds chemistry, and it’s the kind of airtight teamwork that can shut down even the most creative play‑action attacks.
Special teams could be a X‑factor, but Kansas City isn’t about to let a kicker decide their fate. The Chargers’ Cameron Dicker holds the title of most accurate field‑goal kicker in NFL history, but the Chiefs have depth in return men and a knack for turning short kicks into momentum swings. If they can flip field position, they’ll force the Chargers into longer, riskier attempts.
Can the Chargers Turn the Tide?
Enter Jim Harbaugh, the new head coach who arrived with a reputation for grinding out tough, physical football. At the 49ers, he turned a free‑agent‑laden roster into a defensive powerhouse that made deep playoff runs. Harbaugh’s philosophy is now seeping into every facet of the Chargers, from a bruising run game to a play‑action‑heavy offense that mirrors Greg Roman’s early‑Lamar‑Jackson Ravens system.
Justin Herbert is the lynchpin of that scheme. Last season he posted the highest completion rate on play‑action passes of any quarterback, racked up the second‑most completions and yards in those situations, and tossed 12 touchdowns via that exact look. In other words, when he fakes a run and fires a deep ball, defenses pay the price. The Chiefs’ priority will be to smother the run early, forcing Herbert into uncomfortable second‑down throws where his play‑action edge blunts.
But Herbert’s toolbox isn’t limited to trickery. He’s developed into a pocket passer who can extend plays with his legs, a trait Harbaugh’s offensive line seems eager to exploit. The Chargers’ new offensive line, built to absorb bull rushes and open lanes, could give Herbert the time he needs to dissect a Kansas City secondary that, while talented, has shown moments of softness against quick releases.
On defense, the Chargers have a chance to surprise. Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator (still unnamed in the press pack) reportedly emphasizes gap discipline and aggressive blitz packages aimed at disrupting Mahomes’ rhythm before he can locate his receivers. If the Chargers can generate consistent pressure, they might force Mahomes into hurried throws, a scenario that could tilt the field‑goal game in their favor.
Special teams might be where the Chargers tip the scales. Cameron Dicker’s laser‑like accuracy could keep Kansas City’s offense honest, especially in a stadium where the altitude and weather are unfamiliar to both sides. A couple of reliable three‑points could force the Chiefs into a more aggressive, high‑risk approach that Harbaugh’s defense loves to punish.
Ultimately, the AFC West showdown hinges on three battles: Mahomes versus Herbert’s play‑action, the Chiefs’ run defense against a newly physical Chargers offense, and which special‑teams unit can seize the hidden yardage advantage. If Los Angeles can execute Harbaugh’s bruising game plan while containing Mahomes’ late‑game magic, they might finally break the streak that has kept them a step behind Kansas City since 2021.
Regardless of the outcome, the São Paulo lights will be a fitting backdrop for a rivalry that could shape the next decade of AFC West football. A Chiefs win would reinforce a psychological edge that spans ten years, while a Chargers triumph would signal a possible power shift, giving the West a fresh narrative to follow throughout the season. Either way, fans should brace for a hard‑fought, high‑stakes opener that sets the tone for what promises to be an electrifying 2025 NFL campaign.
